Archive for February 21st, 2010

Discount Blues

Sunday, February 21st, 2010

The Federal Reserve 25 basis point discount rate increase on Thursday to 0.75% was not a market moving event. The first Fed hike in either the discount rate or the more important fed funds rate in almost two and a half years will have little direct economic impact. It had…

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Sunday, February 21st, 2010

EUR/USD’s consolidations from 1.3343 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Note that short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3788 resistance holds and another fall is still expected. Below 1.3443 will target 161.8% projection of 1.5143 to 1.4217 from 1.4578 at 1.3076 next. However, considering…

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Sunday, February 21st, 2010

At this point, intraday bias in GBP/USD is still neutral and consolidations from 1.5350 might continue. However, recovery is expected to be limited well below 1.5814 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.5350 will target 61.8% projection of 1.6456 to 1.5534 from 1.5814 at 1.5244 next.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Sunday, February 21st, 2010

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Some more consolidations might be seen. But after all, another rise will be in favor as long as 90.56 support holds. As noted before, the strong break of 91.26 resistance indicates that fall from 93.74 has completed with three waves down…

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Sunday, February 21st, 2010

USD/CHF stabilizes a bit after hitting 4 hours 55 EMA but there is no sign of completion of retreat from 1.0897 yet. Intraday bias remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 1.0897. Nevertheless, another rise is still in favor as long as 1.0646 support holds. Sustained trading…

Mid-Day Report: Yen Recovers But Dollar Remains Soft

Sunday, February 21st, 2010

Yen recovers earlier today as strength in Asian equities was not followed through in European session. The Japanese currency was also supported by speculation of Chinese yuan revaluation later this year to cool inflation. Euro remains firm even though the rumor of a EUR 25b rescue plan for greece was…

Weekly Technical Commentary

Sunday, February 21st, 2010

The latest rally has stalled again against ‘channel’ resistance which happens to lie at the 200-day moving average at 92.25. Though well below the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’, slightly worrying is that the 9 and 26-week moving averages have crossed to a buy while all other elements of this chart suggest…

US Economic Indicators Preview

Sunday, February 21st, 2010

Mr. Bernanke will present the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Panel on Wednesday. He is sure to explain why the Fed increased the discount rate on 18 February, between two FOMC meetings, from 0.5% to 0.75%. Bernanke might reiterate that this measure is not expected to lead to…

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 123.60

Sunday, February 21st, 2010

Although the single currency retreated after intra-day rise to 125.24, the series of higher highs and higher lows from 120.70 suggests low has been formed there and bullishness remains for further gain to 125.50 and later towards resistance at 126.98.

Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Exit Short Entered At 0.9000

Sunday, February 21st, 2010

Although aussie has retreated after faltering below resistance at 0.9037, the strong rebound from 0.8879 suggests upside risk remains and break of this resistance would signal the rise from 0.8578 is still in progress and gain to 0.9100 would follow but 0.9175 should hold from here.

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