Archive for September 26th, 2009

Weekly Review and Outlook: Investors Dumped Risky Assets, Dollar Rebounded from 2009 Low, Yen Soared

Saturday, September 26th, 2009

Last week’s developments showed further evidence that investors are moving away from risky assets as Fed is starting to pave the way for exit from stimulus measures. Stock staged a sharp reversal post FOMC with S&P closed the week at 1044, much lower than the intraday week high of 1080….

EMU Economic Indicators Preview

Saturday, September 26th, 2009

The harmonized EMU unemployment rate has been rising since April 2008, by a total of 2.3 percentage points to 9.5% so far. The regional differences are striking: while the German rate is only 0.2 points higher than in March 2008, the Spanish rate jumped by more than 9 points in…

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

Saturday, September 26th, 2009

The Leading Economic Index may be giving us some key clues on the answer to the often asked question about what the letter shape of the economic recovery will most closely resemble (V, W, U or L). The LEI fell for 20 consecutive months following its peak in July 2007,…

The Weekly Bottom Line

Saturday, September 26th, 2009

The U.S. leading indicators were up 0.6% in August, the fifth consecutive monthly gain, serving as a good indication that economic activity continued to over the third quarter. While we expect real GDP growth to jump 4.0% annualized in that quarter, the vast amount of fiscal stimulus pumped into the…

Weekly Focus: A Global Policy Bonanza

Saturday, September 26th, 2009

This week brought a bonanza of news on global economic policy issues. First, the discussion among monetary institutions about how and when to exit from the extraordinary monetary policy measures taken during the crisis goes on. While most of the major central banks remain quite dovish, this does not hold…

Pound Falls Sharply on BoE Governor King’s Comments

Saturday, September 26th, 2009

Sterling has been one of the weakest currencies this week, with only the Canadian dollar underperforming in the G-10 currency space. GBP/USD has closed the week at 1.5992, recording a fall of 1.7%. The depreciation in the pound has been broad based with GBP/ EUR also falling 1.7%, to close…

Global Financial System Facing Challenges

Saturday, September 26th, 2009

In a very quiet week the most important development was the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review. Not surprisingly the assessment of the health of the Australian banking system was glowing. The banks’ growth since the last recession has concentrated on mortgages. Whereas in the last…

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

Saturday, September 26th, 2009

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.4842 last week before treating sharply. The case of reversal continued to build up with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD but there is not confirmation yet with 1.4611 support intact. Nevertheless, while another rise cannot be ruled out, we’d continue to expect further loss…

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

Saturday, September 26th, 2009

USD/JPY’s fall from 97.77 resumed after recovery from 90.12 was limited at 92.52 and dived to as low as 89.51. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Sustained break of lower channel support (now at 89.50) will pave the way for further decline to retest 87.12 low. On the…

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

Saturday, September 26th, 2009

After initial recovery, GBP/USD’s fall resumed and dived sharply to as low as 1.5915 last week. The strong break of 1.6111 support confirmed the medium term reversal pattern and GBP/USD should have topped out at 1.7043. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.7043 to…

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