Archive for September 18th, 2009

Weekly Market Wrap-up

Friday, September 18th, 2009

In currency trading this week, the greenback continued to hit fresh year-to-date lows against the euro and Swiss Franc and seven-month lows against the yen. The overall market sentiment is that the weaker dollar trend is being driven by reserve diversification, encouraging more commentary that the dollar is becoming a…

Unemployment in 5 States Exceeds 12%

Friday, September 18th, 2009

A weak labor market remains a problem for the U.S. economy

Even though there has been some good news in terms of economic data, supporting the idea that the U.S. recession is technically over, there are still concerns about the labor market.

Even though the pace of jobless claims has slowed, there are still concerns about unemployment. In 5 states, the unemployment rate is above 12%. And even though the pace of job loss has slowed, the economy is still shedding jobs.

This providing speculation that the economic recovery in the U.S. will be a slow, "jobless" recovery. Concerns about the economy have led to a higher dollar this morning in forex trading, even as stocks rise. It’s an interesting new development for the U.S. dollar to be moving in tandem with the stock market.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6400

Friday, September 18th, 2009

The British pound has remained under pressure after breaking the support at 1.6322 and 1.6288, suggesting the rise from 1.6113 has ended and the decline from 1.6742 would extend to 1.6190/00, however, support at 1.6113 should hold from there due to oversold condition. Looking ahead, once this support is penetrated,…

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell at 1.0420 O.C.O Buy at 1.0230

Friday, September 18th, 2009

The greenback has traded narrowly after early marginal fall to 1.0280, suggesting further consolidation would be seen before decline resumes to 1.0265/68 (1.236 times projection of 1.0885 to 1.0529 measuring from 1.0708), then 1.0230 (approx. 50% projection of 1.0700 to 1.0322 measuring from 1.0420), however, oversold condition would limit downside…

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.4570

Friday, September 18th, 2009

Although the single currency has rebounded after intra-day retreat to 1.4647 (just above the Kijun-Sen), break of resistance at 1.4768 is needed to confirm upmove has once again resumed and extend gain towards 1.4790 (61.8% projection of 1.4191 to 1.4636 measuring from 1.4515) but reckon 1.4850/60 would cap upside and…

Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Stand aside

Friday, September 18th, 2009

As the greenback has edged higher again partly due to cross-selling in yen, suggesting a test of resistance at 91.64/65 cannot be ruled out, however, a sustain breach above there is needed to signal a temporary low is possibly formed and bring correction to 91.94 (previous support turned resistance), then…

US Economy Shifts into Forward

Friday, September 18th, 2009

The downward trend of the dollar continued this week. At 1.4768, EUR-USD reached a new annual high while Eastern European and Scandinavian currencies appreciated even more strongly. The losses recorded by the dollar reflect investors’ growing willingness to take on risks, which can also be seen in rising equity prices,…

Weekly Market Commentary

Friday, September 18th, 2009

After weakening against all currencies for the last three weeks, and for ten against the Kiwi, the US dollar might need to take a breather. However, depending on weekly closes tonight there is a chance that the trend will gather pace through to mid-October, pushing precious metals and a few…

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Friday, September 18th, 2009

As discussed before, rebound from 1.6111 should have completed at 1.6740. Fall from there is still in progress and is expected to extend further for retesting 1.6111 support next. On the upside, however, above 1.6566 resistance will invalidate this near term bearish view and suggests that rise from 1.6111 is…

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Friday, September 18th, 2009

While downside momentum is diminishing, further fall is still in favor with 1.0489 resistance intact. Current decline might still extend further to 61.8% projection of 1.1740 to 1.0590 from 1.0883 at 1.0172. However, break of 1.0489 will be an important signal that USD/CHF has bottomed out and will turn short…

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