Daily Forex News

We look for the inter-market correlations that have prevailed throughout 2009 but broke down into the latter part of the summer to resume. We’ve seen some of this in the first week of September, with higher EUR correlating with higher stocks and commodity currencies. The market seems to be in…

In currencies, the week began on the heels of the DPJ’s historic landslide victory in the Japanese parliamentary elections, marking only the second time since 1945 that the incumbent LDP has been out of power. The yen strengthened on the results, which combined with risk aversion forced USD/JPY down to…

The economy presents many different faces depending on how we peel through the data to reveal the inner core. While on the surface economic signals for recovery are there, there is a creeping uneasiness that the character of this recovery already is different than prior recoveries. In August, the ISM…

The most positive surprise this week was the sharp rise in ISM manufacturing, which rose from 48.9 to 52.9. Adding to the strength was the rise in the new orders index, which rose to the highest level since 2004. At 64.9 the index points to growth around 4% in the…

It now looks very likely that U.S. real GDP will return to positive growth in the third quarter after four straight quarters of contraction and the level of GDP having fallen by 4% over the last year. This week brought employment figures for August, and the ISM manufacturing and nonmanufacturing…

Trading in EUR-USD still lacks direction. Towards the end of the week, the euro was around 1.4280, only slightly below the previous week’s level. The mood in equity markets was predominantly subdued. After the substantial losses incurred by the Chinese market at the beginning of the week, the markets remained…

Nervous markets and a US holiday Monday mean we might burst out of recent ranges, possibly gapping over the weekend. Short-dated Treasuries are key, yields likely to drop to unprecedented levels, with credit spreads widening again next week. Foreign exchange should remain range-bound though dollar/Yen and Yen crosses might drop…