Archive for July 26th, 2009

US Economic Indicators Preview

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

According to the final results, Q1 GDP fell an annualised 5.5% qoq, nearly as fast as in Q4. The steep decline was mainly due to massive negative contributions from fixed investments - both residential and non-residential - and inventories. Net exports and private consumption actually contributed positively to growth. In…

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy at 135.00

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

The single currency found renewed buying interest at 134.26 today and resumed recent upmove as expected to as high as 136.05, confirming the wave ii has ended at 133.85 last Friday and upmove in wave iii of (iii) should extend to 136.90 chart resistance, however, it is necessary to break…

Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy at 0.8190

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

The aussie finally resumed recent upmove, confirming the wave (ii) has ended at 0.8108 and retest of recent high at 0.8265 is under way, then towards 0.8300 and eventual target for the wave (iii) is pointing at 0.8360 (100% projection of wave (i) from 0.8108), however, reckon 0.8416 (1.236 extension)…

Weekly Technical Commentary

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

Prices are still thrashing around the ‘neckline’ of a potential ‘head-and-shoulders’ interim top where the ‘head’ marks the upper edge of this year’s broad trading band. A good-sized flat-topped weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ should grind prices lower again to manage a second weekly close below the pivotal 94.00 area (also Fibonacci…

USD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

Although the greenback retreated to 93.09 last week, renewed cross-selling in yen on the back of rising stocks has deferred our bearish count and the wave (ii) from 91.73 is still unfolding to retrace the move from 98.90. Dollar looks set to test 95.32 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 98.90 to…

IMM Positioning - USD Bears Take Charge

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

Speculative investors increased their bets that the dollar would depreciate further, as net short USD positions were extended by USD7.3bn. Short USD positions were mainly built against the euro, which has appreciated strongly against the greenback on the recent surge in risk appetite. Hence, part of the movement in EUR/USD…

Markets to be Tested by Heavy Week of US Data & Bond Issuance

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

With many of the major equity indices hitting new highs for the year, it seems optimism abounds about prospects for global recovery. The improvement in risk sentiment and the associated bounce in equities have been impressive - driven higher by better-than-expected US earnings results, improved economic data and growing hopes…

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside with 133.85 minor support intact and further rise is still in favor. Break of 136.87 resistance will confirm correction from 139.21 has completed with three waves down to 127.08. In such case, medium term rally is likely resuming for another high above…

EURUSD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

Although the single currency finally rose above the flat ground Ichimoku cloud top and close slightly above there, it is still necessary to see a break of recent high at 1.4339 to confirm the rise from 1.2457 has resumed to 1.4474 (50% projection of 1.2885 to 1.4339 measuring from 1.3747)….

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

Intraday outlook in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidation could probably be seen. But after all, pull back should be contained above 152.29 support and bring rally resumption. Above 157.59 will target 160.24 resistance and then 162.56 high. As mentioned before correction from 162.56 should have…

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